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Fewer Homes for Sale Means Prices in US Are Strengthening
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us market lucky to have crashed so hard

News Posted On: 05 December 2011

When the UK followed the US into a housing market crash, experts predicted a crash of fantastic proportions, but only in the US has it actually materialised, and in a way they are lucky. No one can call the millions of people who have lost their homes and jobs lucky, but the market is lucky, because only when you hit rock bottom can you climb back up.

In the UK, prices fell throughout 2007 and 08, but by mid-2009, after around a 20% drop prices started to rise. By the end of the year they were up by 6% on average across the country. Although only the south had seen prices grow by anywhere near that amount, prices in most areas of the country had performed better during the 7-8 month period.

This changed in mid-2010. Prices continued to grow in London and the south, but even in the north there has been no further drastic falls, certainly nothing that has taken us to the doom scenario imagined by those at the start of the crash.

In the US millions of people have lost their homes, prices are down to 2003 levels, affordability it as a 30 year high, but homeownership is at an all time low, and prices are still falling.

In most of the UK house prices are stagnating, and the majority of first time buyers cannot afford to buy for one reason or another across the country. First time buyers are the life blood of any healthy housing market, and that is why the US is lucky.

They call a house price crash a correction not just because it sounds better, but because it is a necessary correction to rapid inflation, when house prices get too high and first time buyers can't afford to buy the market corrects itself. IN the US they are going to a hard bottom, and only when you get to that bottom can you enjoy a recovery. In the UK god knows how long we will be stuck in stagnation, facing the ever-present danger of a second correction.

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