eu construction output suggests rebound 2010 a good year for germany
News Posted On: 18 December 2009
Anybody who watches economic and financial indicators will know that it is far too early to be calling what we are currently experiencing a full scale recovery; the very volatility of it makes this clear.
Based on just two indicators: EU construction output measured by Eurostat: it shows construction output declining massively; down 7.3% on the month and 21.2% on the year the month before last, while a look at GDP figures shows that Slovakia is experiencing some of the most impressive growth in Europe. Sure, this may just point out that construction is not vital to economic growth, and that would be fine if construction output was staying the same on the month.
But the continued sharpness of the contraction against economic growth is an indication of downright volatility.
Now, I want the recovery to come as much as anyone else, but if we start to believe it is here already our government's and central banks will become complacent and fail to make the necessary decisions to turn the current rebound into a recovery.
The Eurostat construction output index does reveal some very positive news for Germany. According to a recent major study into global construction, Germany is going to have one of the fastest construction industries in the world in the next decade, the only one in the top 10 within Europe. This is confirmed by the fact that Eurostat recorded a 0.2% increase in German construction on an annual basis in October.
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