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italian industrial output in third consecutive rise spurring recovery hopes

News Posted On: 21 September 2009

Italian industrial output rose for the third straight mmonth in July according to the Italian statistical office ISTAT. This has spurred hopes that Q3 could be the turning point that sees the Italian economy exit the recession -- breathing the same it-could've-been-a-lot-worse sigh of relief that France and Germany did in Q2.

In July there were 3.2% more new industrial orders than in June, when it had been 2.6% higher than in May.

On an annual basis industrial orders were still down 23.2% in July. That said, this is a big improvement since May when the annual decline stood at 31%.

Italy is the Eurozone's third biggest economy (after Germany and France). There was a lot of disappointment when Italy did not join France and Germany on their exit from the recession in Q2. However, there isn't many people that think Italy's economy will continue contracting in Q3.

Italy's economy is unique in the fact that it is primarily driven by many thousands of small and medium size enterprises, as oppose to hundreds of large corporations. This makes it very dynamic, in that small and medium size enterprises can adapt to the changing global business environment than larger companies can.

Therefore we believe that Italy's economy will emerge from recession in Q3 with a growth of at least 0.5%.

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