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spanish economy looks to have troughed in first quarter but will it grow in the last

News Posted On: 17 November 2009

According to Eurostat's figures it appears that the Spanish economy troughed in the first quarter of this year.

In the first quarter the GDP contraction accelerated to 1.6%, from 1.1% in the last quarter of 2008, before slowing back down to 1.1% in the second quarter, and 0.3% in the third. All eyes are now intently watching to see if Spain can finally emerge from recession -- 2 quarters after its French and German rivals -- in the final quarter of 2009.

The economy is the biggest dampening factor on the Spanish housing market. Spain is still very popular with British and Irish overseas property buyers, but it really needs to see some major increases in domestic demand to start clearing the oversupply and get the foreigners really buying again.

The Spanish stimulus should have been spent on knocking down some of the empty developments, and allowing regional property markets somewhat of a fresh start that they can use to be more responsible about building permissions.

My uncle in law once asked me whether I thought Spanish property was a good investment because it was cheap. I said: no! Sometimes in the world of property -- like everything else -- just because it is cheap doesn't make it a bargain. However, if you can get a good price on an open market property in a good area that is not overdeveloped, then go for it.

The worry is that it may become oversupplied in the future, but that isn't much of a worry; if it was going to be overdeveloped, it would already be so.

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Written by Liam Bailey

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